Tuesday 2 June 2015

FOREX-Dollar climbs new peak against yen, Aussie awaits RBA decision


SYDNEY/TOKYO, June 2 (Reuters) - The dollar hovered at fresh 12-1/2 year highs against the yen on Tuesday, having extended a bullish run after upbeat U.S. data helped it crack tough resistance.

Dollar bulls latched onto a survey showing a pick up in U.S. manufacturing activity and construction spending that pushed Treasury yields higher, while discounting less upbeat data on consumer spending.

The U.S. currency came within a whisker of 125.00 yen , reaching highs not seen since late 2002. It last traded at 124.84 and on track for its eighth straight day of gains.

"Some profits were taken on the dollar last weekend, but cash demand remains strong. The feeling in the market is to give 125 yen a try," said Kyosuke Suzuki, director of forex at Societe Generale (Paris: FR0000130809 - news) in Tokyo.

"The rise by the dollar against the yen has been steep but sentiment favours testing new highs rather than consolidating," he said.

Momentum turned bullish for the dollar after it cracked a double-top resistance around 122.00 yen last week.

The next chart hurdle is seen around 125.65-125.73, an area that capped the dollar back in the final months of 2002.

"Despite the speed of the move, we are not looking to fade it - our end year target is still 132," said Elsa Lignos, senior currency strategist, at RBC Capital Markets.

The euro eased to $1.0926, having fallen as low as $1.0887 overnight as it continued to retreat from last week's peak of $1.1006.

Traders said the fact that its decline has been relatively shallow suggested there was some degree of optimism that Greece will ultimately secure a deal and avoid a debt default.

That could also explain why the common currency actually rose on the yen, reaching its highest in over two weeks at 136.62.

The leaders of Germany, France and Greece's international creditor institutions agreed late on Monday to work with "real intensity" in the coming days as they try to clinch a deal in debt negotiations with Athens.

Athens is due to make a 300-million-euro ($327.93 million) repayment to the IMF on Friday amid growing doubts about its ability to meet all this month's financial obligations.

The dollar also gained ground on commodity currencies, with the Australian dollar briefly dipping below 76 U.S. cents for the first time in seven weeks.

It last stood at $0.7630, keeping a low profile ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision at 0430 GMT.

While the central bank is considered almost certain to hold its cash rate at a record low 2.00 percent, traders said it will need to give a clear easing bias to discourage Aussie bulls.

"Westpac is expecting a mild easing bias, with the RBA likely to use a phrase such as "scope" for further easing. We also expect the RBA to repeat that "further depreciation (of the AUD) seems both likely and necessary," said Sean Callow, senior strategist at Westpac. (Editing by Shri Navaratnam)

Reuters by Ian Chua and Shinichi Saoshiro


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